Despite Donald Trump just signing an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a crypto stockpile, JPMorgan analysts estimate President Donald Trump’s proposal for a US strategic crypto reserve faces long odds, with less than a 50% chance of gaining congressional approval. 

Although the president can instruct federal agencies to coordinate a strategic reserve, it’s unlikely that he can allocate new funds without Congress. 

The bank’s latest report also indicates that if the plan does move forward, only Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are likely to be included—excluding smaller, more volatile assets like XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA).

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director of global market strategy at JPMorgan, told The Block that adding lower-cap tokens could heighten concerns about price swings and risks. 

Although the crypto market initially welcomed Trump’s announcement, skepticism quickly emerged regarding whether Congress would endorse such a reserve and whether less-established cryptocurrencies would make the cut.

We don’t believe an approval of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve is the most likely scenario (…) And if a US strategic crypto reserve is eventually approved, it would be difficult to include smaller tokens outside bitcoin and ethereum, as we argued in the report the inclusion of such tokens would raise more concerns about risk and volatility.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan

Related: South Korea Considers Bitcoin ETFs Following Japan’s Lead in Crypto Regulation

Concerns Over Volatility

JPMorgan cited lawmakers in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, who, over the past year, have rejected state-backed Bitcoin initiatives due to volatility concerns and potential losses. 

Similarly, the Swiss National Bank and Poland’s central bank have both dismissed Bitcoin as a viable reserve asset, while Singapore has similarly declined to incorporate crypto into its long-term investment strategy.

JPMorgan also highlights negative trends stalling the crypto market. Bitcoin posted a nearly 20% decline in February alone, accompanied by US$3.5 billion (AU$5.4 billion) in outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the highest monthly withdrawal since their inception. 

Futures data suggests institutional investors reduce their exposure while momentum traders place short bets, adding downward pressure.

Bitcoin has, again, fallen below the US$88K (AU$139K) level, after rebounding and dropping and… rebounding again… Well, it’s a very tough market right now, and the chart below speaks for itself.